Assessing the Transformative Impacts of the 15th National Games and the National Para Games on Cultural and Tourism Industry Evolution across the Three Host Regions in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

This study investigates the transformative impacts of the 15th National Games and the National Para Games on the evolution of cultural and tourism industries across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao—marking the first mega-sporting event jointly staged under the "one country, two systems" framework. Drawing upon event system theory and spatial econometrics, the paper constructs a Spa-tial Event Spillover Framework (SESF) to capture how infrastructural enhance-ment, cultural valorization, and institutional coordination interact to generate both direct growth and interregional diffusion effects. Using dynamic spatial Durbin models and five-year panel data (2020–2025), the findings reveal a 12.7% increase in cultural–tourism value-added in host cities and a significant 3.8% positive spillover within a 50-kilometer radius, driven largely by cross-boundary connectivity and governance collaboration. Mediation analysis further shows that 41% of the total effect operates through improved transport accessibility and digital integration, while the intensity of institutional coopera-tion amplifies these gains. The results illuminate a "dual-core radiation" pattern centered on Guangzhou and Foshan, signaling a structural shift from fragmented local development toward an integrated, polycentric cultural economy. The study advances theoretical discourse by embedding spatial dependency into event system theory and offers a replicable methodological framework for eval-uating how mega-events catalyze sustainable cultural transformation in mul-ti-jurisdictional regions.