Advanced Top-Down Reliability Evaluation of Wind Power Systems Using Fault Tree Analysis and Aging Effect Modeling

This study provides a detailed examination of the reliability indices of a wind power plant, with an emphasis on the essential electrical components of the wind turbine system, such as the generator, converter, and wind turbine transformer. The analysis also includes critical components such as the generator step-up transformer, cables, and protection devices. For key components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to detect and assess likely failure mechanisms. A significant part of this study is the introduction of ageing effects into the reliability analysis, which use the Weibull distribution to simulate component degradation over time. The reliability indices are calculated by comparing failure and repair rates while accounting for aging-related effects. Key dependability indicators, such as Ideal Output Energy, Expected Output Energy, Production-Based Availability, and Time-Based Availability, are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. By measuring system performance and reliability under aging circumstances, the results offer important insights for enhancing wind power plant design, operation, and maintenance strategies.