Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting with Large Language Model
Most of neural networks require massive data for model training, which limits their forecast accuracy for short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios. To address this limitation, this paper aims to apply the large language models (LLMs), specifically Chronos model, to short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios. In particular, a framework is introduced to convert continuous time-series data in solar power forecasting into the discrete data format required by LLMs. Once pre-trained, LLMs can be directly applied to other datasets for short-term solar power forecasting without the need for further fine-tuning. Simulations on four solar datasets show that the LLM significantly outperforms 7 popular statistical models and 2 state-of-the-art neural networks in both probabilistic and deterministic solar power forecasting, with forecast horizons ranging from 30 minutes to 2 hours. This highlights the superiority of LLMs for short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios.
Authors
- Zhe Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9525-035X)
- Birgitte Bak‐Jensen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8271-1356)
- Yue Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1166-646X)
- Jiannong Fang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9205-6444)
- Fernando Porté‐Agel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9913-3350)
- Wenlong Liao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1175-0280)
Institutions
- Imperial College London (GB)
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
- Aalborg University (DK)
Publication Details
- Published
- 2025-06-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1109/powertech59965.2025.11180347
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.73