On the Modelling of Hydroelectric Generation in Adequacy Studies

This study investigates the use of distinct modeling methods for the various types of hydroelectric facilities (run-of-river, reservoir, and pumped storage), aiming to identify the most effective strategies for managing the variability of water inflows within the Portuguese power system. A particular emphasis is put on reservoir systems, which are crucial for ensuring supply flexibility. The adequacy indices of the system for different evolution scenarios leading up to 2040 were evaluated by implementing several modeling approaches and comparing the outcomes. The findings indicate that the Markov Chain Monte Carlo model more accurately captures the seasonal characteristics of the data, resulting in slightly higher Loss of Load Expectation values than the Sequential Monte Carlo model. The simulations also emphasize the significance of interconnections between Portugal and Spain in maintaining acceptable adequacy indices, especially beyond 2030. This study concludes that the choice of hydro generation modeling methods directly influences the assessment of the electricity system’s adequacy, which is crucial for addressing the challenges of a future with a high penetration of renewable energy sources.