EVALUATION OF THE COMPETITIVENESS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CHINA'S TEA EXPORTS TO RCEP COUNTRIES, BASED ON THE TRADE GRAVITY MODEL

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) officially came into effect in January 2022, representing the world's largest free trade area in terms of population and development potential. Under the RCEP agreement, member countries gradually reduce tariffs, lower trade barriers, and open markets, creating a favorable environment for intra-regional trade. Currently, China is the world's largest tea producer and a significant player in global tea exports. However, with increasing international competition, China's tea exports face considerable challenges. Compared to European and North American markets, RCEP countries are the primary destinations for China's tea exports. Therefore, China must seize the opportunities presented by RCEP to further expand its tea export trade. This study constructs a trade gravity model based on China's tea export data to RCEP countries from 2012 to 2023, analyzing the factors influencing China's tea exports to these countries. The results indicate that China's tea export volume is negatively correlated with geographical distance, exchange rates, and the signing of free trade agreements, while positively correlated with the population of the exporting country, shared language, shared borders, per capita GDP of the exporting country, and China's population. No significant correlation was found with China's per capita GDP or tea production. Based on these findings, this study proposes strategies such as market deepening and expansion, quality upgrading and standard leadership, and promoting regional tea culture and brand internationalization to enhance cooperation between China and RCEP countries and boost tea exports.Keywords:Tea exports, trade gravity model, influencing factors, strategic recommendations