The Gaussian Central Limit Theorem for a Stationary Time Series With Infinite Variance

ABSTRACT We consider a borderline case: The central limit theorem for a strictly stationary time series with infinite variance but a Gaussian limit. In the i.i.d. case, a well‐known sufficient condition for this central limit theorem is regular variation of the marginal distribution with tail index . In the dependent case, we assume the stronger condition of sequential regular variation of the time series with tail index . We assume that a sample of size from this time series can be split into blocks of size such that as and that the block sums are asymptotically independent. Then we apply classical central limit theory for row‐wise i.i.d. triangular arrays. The necessary and sufficient conditions for such independent block sums will be verified by using large deviation results for the time series. We derive the central limit theorem for ‐dependent sequences, linear processes, stochastic volatility processes and solutions to affine stochastic recurrence equations whose marginal distributions have infinite variance and are regularly varying with tail index .

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Time Series Analysis
Published
2025-10-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.70020
Primary Topic
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Type
article
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article

The Gaussian Central Limit Theorem for a Stationary Time Series With Infinite Variance

Muneya Matsui, Thomas Mikosch
Journal of Time Series Analysis
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
article

The Gaussian Central Limit Theorem for a Stationary Time Series With Infinite Variance

Muneya Matsui, Thomas Mikosch
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT We consider a borderline case: The central limit theorem for a strictly stationary time series with infinite variance but a Gaussian limit. In the i.i.d. case, a well‐known sufficient condition for this central limit theorem is regular variation of the marginal distribution with tail index . In the dependent case, we assume the stronger condition of sequential regular variation of the time series with tail index . We assume that a sample of size from this time series can be split into blocks of size such that as and that the block sums are asymptotically independent. Then we apply classical central limit theory for row‐wise i.i.d. triangular arrays. The necessary and sufficient conditions for such independent block sums will be verified by using large deviation results for the time series. We derive the central limit theorem for ‐dependent sequences, linear processes, stochastic volatility processes and solutions to affine stochastic recurrence equations whose marginal distributions have infinite variance and are regularly varying with tail index .

Journal of Time Series Analysis
Nanzan University (JP), University of Copenhagen (DK), University College Copenhagen (DK), IT University of Copenhagen (DK)
Openalex Percentile: Top 64%
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
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The Gaussian Central Limit Theorem for a Stationary Time Series With Infinite Variance — Muneya Matsui, Thomas Mikosch · Journal of Time Series Analysis (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS