Economic Growth Risks Based on Dynamic Models

The article examines the theoretical foundations and practical approaches to defining the stationary state of the economy, analyzing the trajectory of economic growth, and assessing the accompanying economic risks. In conditions of global instability, financial shocks, and systematic internal imbalances, the substantiation of methods for assessing equilibrium states and identifying factors that may cause deviations of the actual development trajectory from the theoretically substantiated one becomes particularly significant. The article reveals the essence of the stationary state as the ultimate aim of the transitional process (dynamic trajectory), reflecting the balance of all macroeconomic parameters. It is to this state that the economic system aspires under the influence of fundamental parameters – the savings rate, population growth rates, capital depreciation, and levels of technological development, labor productivity, and investment activity. The study utilizes orthodox (one-dimensional) models of economic dynamics, specifically the Solow model, the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model, as well as the proposed authors’ (multidimensional) system of equations that reflects intersectoral relationships within the country’s economy. A new approach to the quantitative assessment of economic risk is proposed based on the interval of estimates of capital intensity over time, which allows for tracking the degree of deviation from the stationary state and forming an understanding of the economy’s resilience to negative internal and external factors. The mechanism for identifying a numerical measure of risk based on the behavior of the trajectory of economic development is also substantiated, and the consequences of a high level of risk for the investment climate, dynamics of productivity, employment, financial stability, and the overall socioeconomic security of the country are discussed. The results of the research can be used to improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasts, strategic development planning, and the formulation of effective economic policy in a turbulent external environment.