Investment Potential of the Ukrainian Economy in the Post-War Period

The results of the research show that the ongoing war led to a decrease in Ukraine’s GDP by 29% in 2022. However, according to IMF forecasts, the economy demonstrated a recovery of 5.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024. It is estimated that USD 524 billion will be needed for economic recovery by 2033 (RDNA4). In 2024, the net influx of foreign direct investment amounted to USD 2.96 billion, which is 40.9% higher than in the previous year. However, this figure remains significantly lower than that of Poland (USD 26 billion) and Romania (USD 9 billion). Promising sectors for investment include the agro-industrial complex (15% growth in grain exports in 2024), information technology (USD 7.5 billion in service exports), renewable energy (potential >100 GW, USD 1.2 billion in investments in 2024), defense technologies (over 150 projects in Brave1), and infrastructure (needs of USD 200 billion according to RDNA4). International support plays a key role in this matter. The «Fund for Ukraine» program (EUR 50 billion for 2024–2027), the «Investment Framework for Ukraine» (EUR 7.8 billion in guarantees, with a potential maximum of EUR 40 billion), and the G7 initiatives regarding the use of frozen Russian assets (USD 300 billion) have played an important role in creating favorable conditions for attracting capital. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s investment attractiveness is limited by significant risks, including security threats, corruption (CPI index – 36 in 2024), labor shortages due to the migration of 6.5 million people, an energy crisis (50% loss of production in 2024), and instability in the regulatory environment. A comparative analysis with Eastern European countries underscores the necessity of diversifying investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is losing competitiveness. In order to enhance the investment attractiveness of our country, it is recommended that the government accelerates the judicial reform process through the digitization of courts by 2027, strengthens anti-corruption agencies through transparent competitions in NABU/SAP, establishes special economic zones with privileges (0% profit tax for 5 years), and develops public-private partnerships. Investors are advised to utilize insurance mechanisms (MIGA, UIF), pay attention to high-profit sectors (IT, agriculture, defense technologies), and establish collaboration with local partners. The experience of countries that have been in a state of post-war reconstruction (Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina) confirms the efficiency of creating recovery funds, streamlining procedures, and engaging the diaspora. The research demonstrates that Ukraine has significant investment potential, and this conclusion is supported by a number of factors, including international support for the country, the presence of competitive sectors, and the necessity for reconstruction. Achieving this goal depends on the cessation of hostilities, the implementation of institutional reforms, and the improvement of the regulatory framework. The practical value of the work lies in the development of recommendations for the government and investors. The theoretical value lies in the systematization of approaches to assessing investment potential. It is recommended that future research focus on the efficiency of public-private partnerships and the development of strategies for engaging the diaspora.