Statistical analysis of the dynamics of crime indicators among youth in the Novosibirsk region for 2008–2024

The article defines the age limits of the “youth” category based on the specifics of crime accounting in criminal statistics. The portal of legal statistics and the website of the Prosecutor General’s Office of Russia are used as the main sources of information. The dynamics of the crime rate with the allocation of high, medium and low levels in the Novosibirsk region and in Russia for 2008–2024 is analyzed. The adopted state regulations and regional and municipal programs aimed at reducing youth crime are reflected. A regression model of youth crime in the Novosibirsk region with a linear downward trend was built and a forecast was made until 2026. The seasonality in the identification of criminals among minors and students in the Novosibirsk region is demonstrated.