Time-varying associations between diabetes and mortality following COVID-19: Evidence from a U.S. Veteran population

Prior studies suggest that diabetes is associated with severe outcomes following COVID-19. However, most research has focused on early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and less is known about changing diabetes-associated risks over time. We constructed a retrospective cohort of U.S. Veterans with documented COVID-19 between March 2020 and August 2023 (N = 426,170). We used Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks of 60-day mortality following COVID-19 among Veterans with and without diabetes, incorporating demographic and clinical covariates, as well as weights to address unequal probabilities of selection into the sample. We then incorporated interaction terms representing six-month time windows and plotted predicted mortality risks over time. To contextualize risk estimates, we repeated the analysis among a cohort of Veterans without documented COVID-19. Diabetes was associated with overall higher risk of 60-day mortality following COVID-19 (RR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.17-1.26). Mortality risks attenuated over time and converged with risks observed among Veterans without COVID-19 by March-August 2022. Results suggest that post-COVID-19 mortality risks associated with diabetes may have attenuated over time. Mechanisms underlying the attenuation of mortality risks were beyond the scope of the paper, however, future studies can potentially shed light on the contributions of population immunity (driven by previous infection or vaccination status), changing treatment patterns, and other factors to time-varying mortality risks following COVID-19 among individuals with diabetes.