A Guide to a Probabilistic Security Assessment of Primary Frequency Response

The energy transition towards renewable sources comes with the impediment that it exacerbates the uncertainty plaguing the bulk power system and lowers its inertia. In such a context, assessing how secure the power system is becomes even more crucial in order to ready enough defensive measures against contingencies during grid operation. To take into account the possible realizations of uncertain sources and evaluate the risk, one must part ways with the traditional (N-1) criterion and make use of probabilistic methods. This paper details the development process of a probabilistic Dynamic Security Assessment tool that weights the impact of control reserve insufficiency in the occurrence of contingencies. For this purpose, time domain Monte Carlo Simulations of the frequency response model of conventional generators are conducted. Furthermore, the stochastic variation of wind power production is accounted for during simulations. Finally, a case study on the RTS-GMLC system is provided.