Factors for Improving the Reliability of Inter-City Buses in Tanzania: The Case Study of Dar es Salaam

Frequent inter-city bus breakdowns, delays, and safety concerns have become common issues, undermining passenger confidence and the system’s overall efficiency. The study aimed to identify the factors affecting the reliability of inter-city buses and to develop a maintenance management model to improve the reliability of inter-city buses in Tanzania, specifically in the case of Dar es Salaam. The methodology used in this research was a mixed-method approach, combining field surveys, observation, and questionnaires. The data were collected from 96 respondents, including bus owners, maintenance personnel, and drivers, while 36 buses were physically inspected. The data were analysed using statistical software. The results show that the variables linked to mechanical breakdowns, specifically suspension, engine, and transmission systems, were the most failure-prone components. In addition, management and maintenance factors, specifically maintenance planning, the age of buses, maintenance records, the budget for maintenance, and spare parts issues, indicated strong positive results. The maintenance management model and structure were developed and validated using empirical monthly bus data over 11 months. The validation employed a holdout method where the model’s predicted outputs were compared with the actual recorded reliability. The average actual value obtained was 91% and the average predicted reliability was 81%, showing a prediction accuracy gap of 10%. The closest alignment confirms the model’s reliability in reflecting the applicability in the real world. The study recommends adopting the developed maintenance management model to improve the reliability of inter-city buses.