The Influencing Mechanism and Changing Evaluation of Plateau Pika Hazard: Implications for Grassland Management

ABSTRACT Plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae , hereafter pika) is a keystone species and ecological engineer on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP), while pika outbreak is one of the hazards to accelerate the degradation of alpine grasslands. Our limited understanding of the distribution and influencing factors of pika hazard has hindered the implementation of reasonable control measures. In this study, we conducted a fixed‐point survey to investigate the effective pika hole (EPH) at 401 workpoints by aerial photography with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the Qilian Mountains (QLM) from 2019 to 2024. The influencing factors, current and future control area of pika hazard (CAPH, EPH > 150) were explored based on the EPH and environmental variables (terrain, climate, vegetation and soil) by constructing Random Forest models. Our results demonstrated that terrain, climate, and vegetation significantly impacted pika density, among which aboveground biomass (AGB) was the most important factor affecting high pika density (EPH > 150). Currently, pika hazard mainly distributed in Qilian and Gangcha county, with the area of about 3.31 × 10 4 km 2 and accounting for 18.85% of the total area of QLM. CAPH gradually decreased under future climate change and the maximum decrease of 42.97% was found under the scenario of ssp585 during the period of 2080–2100. Meanwhile, the center of gravity of pika hazard transferred to the high latitude and altitude areas of the northwest of QLM. Our findings emphasized that current pika hazard is relatively low in the QLM and pika density would further reduce in the future. Given the keystone role of pika in maintaining biodiversity of QTP, we proposed to prevent and control pika in hazard‐prone areas instead of extinction within the whole QLM. Zonal control and ecological restoration are the optimal strategies to prevent and control pika hazard and protect biodiversity of alpine grasslands.