Public transport safety and crime patterns in Lagos and Abuja

The rising incidence of crime in public transportation systems across Nigerian cities has necessitated the analysis of safety measures and their effectiveness. This study examines public transport safety and crime patterns in Lagos and Abuja. Analysis of crime statistics reveals that Lagos recorded 2,847 transportation-related crimes across its BRT, traditional buses, and taxi systems, while Abuja reported 1,623 incidents during the same period. Researchers surveyed 784 passengers (402 in Lagos, 382 in Abuja) and interviewed 45 transport operators across both cities. The Incidence of Crime Index (ICI) and Passenger Safety Measure Index (PSMI) were employed to evaluate the effectiveness of security protocols. Results reveal significant differences in transportation-related crimes between the two cities, with Lagos reporting higher incidents (14.3 per 10,000 passengers) compared to Abuja (8.7 per 10,000 passengers). Three key relationships were identified: a strong negative correlation between technological interventions and crime reduction, a moderate positive relationship between socio-economic factors and crime probability, and a positive impact of community engagement on safety measure effectiveness. Notably, technological interventions partially mediate the relationship between socio-economic factors and crime incidents. Lagos demonstrated higher scores across all safety measure dimensions, including surveillance coverage (0.75), emergency response (0.68), security personnel (0.71), and technological intervention (0.74), compared to Abuja. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating technological solutions with community engagement while considering socio-economic conditions in developing effective urban transportation security strategies. The study contributes to understanding transportation security dynamics in rapidly evolving African urban environments and provides evidence-based recommendations for policy development.