Epidemiological trend in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) burden in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections for 2041: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

The burden of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in China exhibits a dual trajectory: declining mortality in type 1 diabetes-related DKD (DKD-T1DM), alongside rising incidence of type 2 diabetes-related DKD (DKD-T2DM). This epidemiological divergence is associated with China's vast population base, demographic aging, and evolving risk profiles, though projections require cautious interpretation given ARIMA model limitations in accounting for unforeseen healthcare disruptions or policy shifts. Sustainable mitigation necessitates precision prevention strategies, enhanced primary healthcare services, and targeted interventions to address urban-rural diagnostic disparities, particularly underestimated burdens in resource-limited rural settings, alongside multidisciplinary coordination to address this growing public health challenge.