Analysing the input and prevalence risks of monkeypox in Chinese cities based on international flight data

This study analysed the risk of monkeypox introduction in 45 Chinese cities based on 2022-2023 data from international cross-border air travel networks and ability of urban defense against infectious disease input risk. We constructed a statistical risk model related to the current number of monkeypox cases in the cities. And the socioeconomic, environmental, and meteorological factors of Chinese cities were preprocessed using the entropy weight method (EWM) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) prevalence risk models. The study yielded the following export risk values: 107.6, 11.44, and 8.73 for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain, respectively, while Hong Kong had the highest input risk, reaching a peak value of 4.23. Our model indicates that from March to June 2023, new monkeypox cases will be concentrated in Asian and African countries, with a greater risk of prevalence in larger Chinese cities such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, and the real situation of the input case has verified this result. After EWM processing, sample testing and patient transfer capabilities significantly reduced the prevalence risk with weights of 15.68% and 22.63%, respectively.