Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere. Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth's climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth System Dynamics
Published
2025-10-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.32

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article

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

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3 citations
Earth System Dynamics
Climate variability and models
3.32
article

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Thejna Tharammal, Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, Matthew H. England, Henk A. Dijkstra, Sybren Drijfhout, Didier Swingedouw, Alexey V. Fedorov, Kai Kornhuber, Steven C. Sherwood, Stefanie Rynders, Laura Jackson, Bablu Sinha, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean‐Baptiste Sallée, David I. Armstrong McKay, Jonathan F. Donges, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. In this narrative review, we investigate tipping points in these systems by assessing scientific evidence for feedbacks that may drive self-sustained change beyond critical forcing thresholds, drawing on insights from expert elicitation. The literature provides multiple strands of evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and “fresher” (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere. Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, a few lines of evidence suggest the West African monsoon (WAM) as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Despite multiple potential sources of destabilization, evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited. Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilizing Earth's climate (along with minimizing other environmental pressures, such as aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean–atmosphere system.

Earth System DynamicsVol. 16(5)
Uppsala University (SE), Met Office (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Planetary Science Institute (US), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE), Université de Bordeaux (FR), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Université du Québec à Montréal (CA), Stockholm University (SE), University of Applied Sciences Utrecht (NL), Universidade de São Paulo (BR), Utrecht University (NL), National Oceanography Centre (GB), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), UNSW Sydney (AU), Yale University (US), Sorbonne Université (FR), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (FR), Sydney Institute of Marine Science (AU), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (FR), Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (FR), Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History (DE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), University of Southampton (GB), University of Bergen (NO), Indian Institute of Science Bangalore (IN), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), Columbia University (US)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, UK Research and Innovation, European Commission, Met Office, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, Vetenskapsrådet, European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Natural Environment Research Council
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Climate variability and models
3.32
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