Validation of the prognosis model <scp>SIMAGRIO</scp> ‐ <scp>W</scp> to predict larval activity in top soil layers for <i>Agriotes</i> larvae in eastern <scp>Austria</scp>

Abstract Wireworms within the genus Agriotes (Coleoptera: Elateridae) can cause substantial damage to agricultural crops. The vertical movements of these pest insects in the soil make the timing of control measures a difficult task. The forecast model SIMAGRIO‐W utilizes soil temperature and moisture data to predict the migration of Agriotes wireworms to the upper soil layer. The model distinguishes between two risk levels: low risk (less than 30% of the wireworm population in the upper soil layer) and high risk (more than 30%), which are considered adequate for practical purposes. In German field sites, the model demonstrated an 80% success rate across four soil types. The SIMAGRIO‐W model was tested under the warm and dry climate in eastern Austria. The validation process revealed an overall accuracy of just 46%, primarily due to the fact that SIMAGRIO‐W assumes a maximum activity level for wireworms at 11°C. However, high activity levels were observed at soil temperatures of up to 26°C at the experimental sites. The discrepancy in the prediction power of the model between the German and Austrian field sites may be explained by differences in temperature tolerance between the Agriotes species occurring in eastern Austria (e.g. A. ustulatus) and in western Germany (e.g. A. obscurus ). Our findings demonstrate that the thermal preferences of different wireworm species must be taken into account to make the SIMAGRIO‐W model a widely applicable decision support tool for predicting vertical movements of Agriotes wireworms.