Driving Mechanisms of Supply–Demand Imbalance in Key Ecosystem Services in Dust Storm‐Prone Areas: A Case Study of the Hotan Oasis

ABSTRACT The equilibrium between supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) is pivotal for maintaining regional socio‐ecological system stability and preventing land degradation. However, extant research on the driving mechanisms of ES predominantly focuses on the supply side, and the driving mechanisms of supply–demand balance have not been sufficiently emphasized. The Hotan Oasis was selected as the research region, and the ecosystem services supply–demand ratios (ESDR) of four key services were calculated. These services included sand fixation (SF), water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and food production (FP). The measurement period was from 2005 to 2020. The optimal parameter‐based geographic detector (OPGD) was employed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms governing the four ESDR. The results of the study indicate that (1) ES supply and demand showed significant spatial and temporal differences. SF and SR were generally in deficit, with SF deficits mainly concentrated in the northern desert regions. SR deficits were concentrated in the southern mountainous regions. WY and FP were generally in surplus, but there were significant spatial mismatches. (2) The supply and demand of ES were influenced by a combination of natural and human activities. The impact of animal husbandry on SF was found to be significant, with its interaction with natural factors demonstrating notable significance. In contrast, natural factors exhibited the strongest driving effect on ESDR in WY and SR. The planting industry was found to have the strongest driving effect on FP, with its interaction with population factors being prominent. (3) In response to the spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of ES supply and demand, this study proposes a zoned governance framework of “source sand control—pathway blocking—system synergy”.