Dolarizasyonun Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: 2010:01-2024:03 Türkiye Örneği

Dollarization, which occurs as a result of the loss of confidence in the national currency, is a phenomenon that should be taken into consideration especially for developing country economies. The deepening of the dollarization process may cause the weight of the national currency in the relevant country's economy to decrease, thus leading to losses in seigniorage revenues and a decrease in the effectiveness of economic policies designed based on the national currency. It is very important to determine the macroeconomic reasons in order to eliminate the negativities caused by dollarization. Based on this, the effects of the real effective exchange rate, inflation rate and CDS premium on deposit dollarization for the period 2010:01-2024:03 in Türkiye were analyzed using the Distributed Autoregressive bounds test and the causality relationship between the variables was analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the bounds test results, it was determined that the variables were cointegrated in the long term, the inflation rate and the exchange rate had a negative effect on the dollarization rate, and the CDS premium had a positive effect on the dollarization rate. According to the causality test results, it was concluded that the causality relationship between both inflation rate and exchange rate and dollarization is bidirectional.