Ecosystem Stability and Driving Mechanisms in the Main Agricultural Areas of Tajikistan: An Application of Stress‐Buffer‐Response System

ABSTRACT Tajikistan has been facing ecological problems such as soil erosion and salinization for a long time, and the sustainability of ecosystems has been seriously challenged. A systematic analysis of the current status of ecosystem stability and its driving mechanisms is significant for protecting its agricultural production and maintaining local human well‐being. Therefore, this study constructed a stress‐buffer‐response (SBR) ecosystem stability assessment system using the main agricultural areas of Tajikistan as the study area and comprehensively assessed their ecological status through water erosion (WE), salinization detection index (SDI), remote sensing ecological index (RSEI), and net primary productivity (NPP). Based on this, the random forest (RF) model was used to analyze the drivers of ecosystem stability. The results of the study showed that salinization is the main stressor of ecosystem stability in Tajikistan's agricultural areas due to poor irrigation practices and climate change, with a high percentage (> 50%) of the area under severe and extreme salinization, while strong water erosion is only concentrated in the central part near the glaciers. Land quality remains stable overall but declines significantly in 2020, which is attributed to recent large‐scale agricultural development. NPP improves overall, which is attributed to increased precipitation. The ecosystem stability shows an overall increasing trend, which is strongly influenced by vegetation and human activities. Future work should focus on rehabilitating salinized land and optimizing the way of large‐scale agricultural development in order to achieve sustainable agricultural development in the study area. This study can provide scientific guidance for agroecological restoration in Tajikistan.