Estimation of the Photovoltaic Power Potential in Mexico From <scp>CORDEX</scp> – <scp>CORE</scp> Simulations

ABSTRACT Mexico has a critically important photovoltaic potential with which to produce renewable energy. However, there are few studies on how future climatic conditions might affect these potential energy resources. Here, we present an analysis of PVP over Mexico under present and future conditions with different climate‐change scenarios. For this, we are using the latest regional climate models (RCMs): RegCM4 and REMO2015 from CORDEX–CORE. The RegCM4 and REMO2015 models were driven by ERA‐Interim and four different general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. We consider four 20‐year periods: present‐day conditions (PD, for 1995–2014), near‐term future conditions (NT, for 2021–2040), mid‐term future conditions (MT, for 2041–2060), and long‐term future conditions (LT, for 2080–2099). Our results suggest that PVP could decrease (between ~2% and ~6%) over Mexico for the mid‐ and long‐term future, mainly during summer and autumn, possibly due to changes in temperature induced by an increase in warming under a high‐emission scenario. Also, we found that in regions where PVP and solar irradiance changes are positive, the radiation term could have a greater influence on PVP changes than the efficiency solar cell term. Contrarily, in regions where we found positive changes in solar irradiance and the PVP change was negative, the efficiency solar cell term might exercise more influence on PVP changes than the solar irradiance term. On the other hand, following a low emission path, some regions of the country might experience a small PVP increase (~4%). This work represents the first assessment of PVP in Mexico using two RCMs. The findings could help identify suitable areas for photovoltaic systems and provide helpful information for renewable energy planning and climate adaptation in the energy sector, thereby contributing to the energy transition of the country.