The Transformation of Turkish-Israeli Relations after Al-Aqsa Flood: An Analysis of Geopolitical, Political, and Social Dynamics

Türkiye established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, with Ankara’s recognition of the Jewish state. During the Cold War era, the relations were shaped by geopolitical and security concerns such as Soviet expansionism. Over the years, both countries opted for a pragmatic rapprochement in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Gulf Arab states in a significant realignment in regional dynamics. For Türkiye, it was a calculated decision against regional isolation and evolving dynamics. Operation al-Aqsa Flood and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza turned out to be another key moment that caused significant social sensitivity to Türkiye’s ties to Tel Aviv. This article examines the evolution of Türkiye-Israel ties through three critical events: the Abraham Accords, Turkish foreign policy’s post-Arab Spring reorientation, and social reactions to Israel’s genocide in Gaza. It also analyzes the gradual transformation of Türkiye-Israel ties from being mainly shaped by political elites to being increasingly influenced by social pressures and sensitivities. Its trajectory now depends on a complex web of structural, geopolitical factors, and domestic public opinion, and suggests a potential foreign policy recalibration for Türkiye.