Adolescents’ educational aspirations and expectations: the interaction between school experiences, region, and financial disadvantage

Abstract Adolescents residing in regional areas, and those from more financially disadvantaged families, traditionally have worse academic outcomes relative to their counterparts in metropolitan communities. A key mechanism that may account for these differences is how far individuals would like to progress in the educational system (aspirations) and how far they actually think they will progress (expectations). These plans are shaped by social background and schooling experiences, which can either reduce or amplify educational inequalities. Using two large Australian samples, we found that adolescents from metropolitan and financially advantaged families reported higher aspirations (Study 1, N = 3,896) and expectations (Study 2, N = 3,956) than their regional and more disadvantaged peers. In both studies, the school environment moderated the effects of family financial background on educational plans. School satisfaction (Study 1) and belonging (Study 2) amplified socioeconomic disparities, with gaps in educational future plans widening among students who felt more positive about school. These findings suggest that positive school environments may also inadvertently reinforce structural inequalities when broader barriers remain unaddressed.