Modelling the Presence of Smokers in Households for Future Policy and Advisory Applications

Identifying tobacco smoke exposure in indoor environments is critical for public health, especially in vulnerable populations. In this study, we developed and validated a machine learning model to detect smoking households based on indoor air quality (IAQ) data collected using low-cost sensors. A dataset of 129 homes in Spain and Austria was analyzed, with variables including PM2.5, PM1, CO2, temperature, humidity, and total VOCs. The final model, based on the XGBoost algorithm, achieved near-perfect household-level classification (100% accuracy in the test set and AUC = 0.96 in external validation). Analysis of PM2.5 temporal profiles in representative households helped interpret model performance and highlighted cases where model predictions revealed inconsistencies in self-reported smoking status. These findings support the use of sensor-based approaches for behavioral inference and exposure assessment in residential settings. The proposed method could be extended to other indoor pollution sources and may contribute to risk communication, health-oriented interventions, and policy development, provided that ethical principles such as transparency and informed consent are upheld.