Implications for Public Health Strategies: Quantifying the Likelihood of COVID-19 Reinfection

COVID-19, an epidemic disease, caused by novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV2, significantly affected the whole world. The expeditious rise of corona cases has overpowered everything. Though the number of cases in some selected regions began to slow down after taking precautionary measures (quarantine, social distancing, vaccination), but again due to easiness showed by the individuals in preventive measures, the second wave of corona has emerged. With the large number of detecting kits and a high-sensitivity RT-PCR test, community health workers tested various individuals and recorded infectious and recovered ones. Aim. The goal of this work is to use mathematical equations to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 reinfection in the recovered compartment of the system. Method. A new SIRS model has been proposed with the help of differential equations, whose stability was checked via the Jacobian matrix, and the reproduction number has also been calculated. Results. Due to the avoidance of important preventive and precautionary measures by the people across the community, the cases accelerate erratically. The analytical results obtained by the numerical solutions revealed that the people who were recovered by either quarantine themselves or by synthetic/ chemical treatment/ vaccination can have a chance of reinfections. came out to be 1.03. Conclusions. As there are chances of being reinfected, it is important to get vaccinated and follow all the precautionary measures required to combat COVID-19 infection.