The Impact of the Economic Crisis and the Pandemic on the Portuguese Tourism Industry: An Econometric Approach

Tourism is a key driver of Portugal’s economy, with the WTTC projecting it to contribute EUR 56.4 billion (21.1% of GDP) by 2033. However, the sector has proven highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, which have disrupted demand patterns and exposed structural weaknesses. It is essential to understand these impacts at a regional level in order to design more resilient and sustainable tourism strategies. This study examines how major crises have shaped tourism in Portugal’s NUTS II regions, focusing particularly on overnight stays, and assesses the implications for sustainable development and regional policy. Quarterly data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) covering 2004/2024 are used. We apply ARIMA and SARIMA models to account for seasonality and autocorrelation, and evaluate the accuracy of our forecasts using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil’s U statistics. Structural breaks are considered to capture the effects of crises. The findings show that crises have significantly altered tourism patterns, with a shift towards less crowded and more remote destinations. This reflects vulnerabilities and opportunities for sustainability-oriented tourism. The study offers policymakers actionable guidance by aligning its results with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to economic resilience (SDG 8), innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), and partnerships for sustainable governance (SDG 17). This work is original in combining long-term regional data with robust forecasting techniques to provide innovative insights for scientific research and practical policy planning.