Causal inference and the metaphysics of causation

Abstract The techniques of causal inference are widely used throughout the non-experimental sciences to derive causal conclusions from probabilistic premises. This poses a philosophical question. What in the nature of causation accounts for the possibility of causal inference? In this paper I shall seek to answer this question. I shall develop a metaphysical theory of causation designed to explain the success of causal inference techniques. I shall then indicate how this theory also accounts naturally for single-case causation and the relation between causation and rational action. Finally, I shall compare the resulting picture with “interventionist” approaches to causation.