Evaluation of the Performance of Aquacrop Models and the Impact of Future Climate Change on Sorghum Production in semi-arid conditions.

Abstract AquaCrop is a computerized simulation that forecasts the influence of soil, atmosphere irrigation, and development of crops on irrigation efficiency, output, and other agricultural characteristics. This research assesses the AquaCrop model’s implementation for sorghum, with an emphasis on spring sorghum in 2024. The investigation was carried out at the Kanipanka farming Investigation located in the Shahrazoor of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, roughly 35 km east of in Sulaymaniyah. And the trial used a randomized entirety blocks layout and consist of the twelve treatments and thee block, The research used therapy with drip irrigation schedules of 60%, 80% and 100%.The simulation effectiveness was assessed using analytical parameters, statistical coefficient of correlation (r), modelling efficiency (E), the average square root error and the Compatibility Guide (d). The model findings are remarkably similar to real values for yield of seeds, biomass, harvest index, and water efficient using the model. The AquaCrop simulation calibration produced in the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.44, 2.273, 4.903 and 0.46, model efficiency (E) of 0.74,0.831,0.931and 0.84. co-efficient of correlation (r) of 0.941, 0.985, 0.971 and 0.996, Compatibility Guide (d) of 0.96, 0.885,0.935 and 1.080 kg m −3 , correspondingly. According to the anticipated statistics, majority worldwide climate models and scenarios for the years (1985-2005) showed an overall drop in precipitation and a rise in temperature. In the Sulaimani government the estimated findings likewise showed a general decline in grain yield over time in the tested models of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (EC-Earth, CNRM-CM5, GFDLESM2M) throughout the same periods (1985-2005). the forecasts for sorghum in semi-arid environments, its concluded that the FAO AquaCrop simulation is appropriate to forecasting crop production, biological yield, irrigation efficient, and canopy cover.