Assessment of the medical oncology workforce in Saudi Arabia: Current state and future projections.

289 Background: Medical oncologists play the primary role in the diagnosis, treatment, and management of cancer patients. Ensuring an adequate and well-trained medical oncology workforce is essential to meet the increasing demand for oncology services given the rapid increase in incidence of cancer cases in Saudi Arabia as reported in multiple studies. This study aims to assess the current state of the medical oncology workforce in Saudi Arabia, project future trends, and identify potential workforce shortages. Methods: A predictive modeling framework was developed using national datasets from the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties (SCFHS) and Saudi Cancer Registry Annual Reports. Initial data pre-processing focused on outlier detection and adjustment. Subsequently, model selection was performed comparing the performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Error, Trend, Seasonality (ETS), and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) models. The ETS model demonstrated superior performance for forecasting practitioner trends, while the NNAR model was identified as optimal for projecting trainee and cancer incidence trajectories. A 4% annual attrition rate was consistently applied to all workforce forecasts. Descriptive analysis of the practitioner workforce was conducted, examining age, gender, and regional distribution. Results: The number of practicing medical oncologists is projected to increase from 165 in 2024 to 312 by 2030, representing an 89% increase. However, the workforce is currently 77% male, with 58% aged ≥45 years, indicating a maturing cohort. Practitioners are geographically concentrated, with 47.9% located in Central and Western region, and less representation in peripheral regions. Trainee distribution reflects similar centralization, with 64.1% training in Riyadh. While female representation among trainees is higher than in the current workforce (31.5% female), regional and gender imbalances persist. The annual intake of total trainees is expected to remain stable at approximately 70 per year through 2030. Cancer incidence is projected to increase from 18,720 new cases in 2024 to 19,162 by 2030. The average number of new cases per oncologist is expected to decline from 113 to 61, indicating improved workforce capacity and reduced clinical burden. Conclusions: Saudi Arabia is expected to meet oncology workforce capacity targets by 2030, however challenges related to aging, gender imbalance, and geographic maldistribution remain. Addressing these issues will be critical to achieving equitable, high-quality cancer care across the country.