Global burden of uterine cancer: Trends, regional disparities, and projections to 2050—An analysis of GBD 2021 study.

233 Background: Uterine cancer, commonly referred to as Endometrial cancer, is one of the most prevalent gynaecological cancers among women associated with higher mortality rates especially if diagnosed in the later stages. Being the sixth most common cancer, with no effective screening method detected yet, it poses a serious life threat to post-menopausal women and hence it is essential to explore its trends and mortality rates over the decades. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) was used to extract data for deaths associated with uterine cancer from 1980-2021. Dataset was stratified globally, continent-wise and by socio-demographic index levels. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) were assessed. The African continent was further stratified into its regions and these estimates were quantified using Joint point regression and the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated accordingly. ARIMA modelling was used to do forecasting till 2050. Results: Globally, there was a declining trend in the age standardized death rates (ASDR) for uterine cancer from 1980-2021. In 1980, the ASDR was 2.92 (95% UI 2.60 to 3.19) which declined to 2.11 (95% UI 1.87 to 2.34 in 2021, (AAPC = -0.78; 95% CI -0.69 to -0.88). The disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were 69.17 in 1990 and dropped to 56.15 in 2021 (AAPC = -0.68; 95% CI -0.81 to -0.55). The age standardized years of life lost (YLL) showed unvarying dropping trends during the same timeline (AAPC = -0.91; 95% CI -1.01 to -0.81). Upon continent analysis, Europe and America exhibited the highest mortality rates [(AAPC = -0.24; 95% CI -0.49 to -0.01) and (AAPC = -0.29; 95% CI -0.39 to -0.19) respectively] while Asia showed the steepest decline. However, it is of significant importance that Africa is the only continent to portray a rise in the mortality rates during this timeframe (AAPC = 0.26; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.300). Moreover, sharply rising trends were noted in Western and Southern Africa [(AAPC = 0.62; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.68) and (AAPC = 0.54; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.82) respectively] while northern and central Africa demonstrated a slow rise. Eastern Africa was the only one with a declining trend. According to socio-demographic index, middle, high-middle and high SDI regions had an overall decline whereas the lower-middle and lower SDI regions had relatively stable death rates during this period. By 2050, the ASDR of African region will decrease to 1.85 (95% CI: 1.32-2.37). Conclusions: In conclusion, while global uterine cancer mortality has declined significantly over the past decades, notable regional disparities persist. Africa remains the only continent with increasing death rates, especially in Western and Southern regions. Targeted interventions and enhanced healthcare infrastructure are urgently needed to address these disparities and improve outcomes.