Can China's two-child policy reverse fertility decline? An in-depth analysis of fertility behavior and desires.

This study utilizes data from the 2014 and 2018 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and applies Difference-in Differences (DID) and Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) methods to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of the universal two-child policy on fertility behavior and family fertility desires in China. The results indicate that although the universal two-child policy aims to increase birth rates, its effects have fallen short of desires. The relaxation of policy restrictions did not significantly encourage families to have a second child and even reduced the desired number of children per family. This study further reveals the complexities and heterogeneity in the policy's implementation, influenced by intersecting economic, social, and cultural factors, thus providing a new perspective for understanding the impact of the universal two-child policy.