Analysis of the Motivations for the Introduction of Mongolia’s Permanent Neutrality Policy

Following the introduction of the “multi-pillar” diplomatic strategy and the “third neighbor” policy, in September 2015, Mongolia officially launched a permanent neutrality policy. The motivation behind Mongolia’s adoption of the permanent neutrality policy has sparked discussions in academic circles. However, most relevant discussions remain at the level of perceptual knowledge and lack a theoretical framework. Overall, neutrality theory posits that there are two motivations for small countries to choose permanent neutrality: first, to avoid being involved in future (military) conflicts in order to maintain important economic relations with relevant countries; second, to enhance autonomy without provoking major powers. Based on this, regarding the motivation behind Mongolia’s adoption of the permanent neutrality policy, two research hypotheses can be proposed: first, Mongolia seeks to avoid being involved in future (military) conflicts in order to maintain economic relations with relevant countries; second, Mongolia seeks to enhance its autonomy without provoking major powers. Both of the above research hypotheses have been well empirically verified. The research results show that, from the perspective of neutrality theory, the motivation for Mongolia’s adoption of the permanent neutrality policy is to avoid being involved in future (military) conflicts in order to maintain economic relations with relevant countries and enhance autonomy. For Mongolia, seeking permanent neutrality to enhance autonomy mainly refers to being free from the pressure of taking sides politically and security-wise, rather than being economically independent of China and Russia.