LONG-TERM LOSSES FORECAST OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES FROM THE IMPACT OF NEGATIVE EXTERNAL ECONOMIC FACTORS

The presented article is devoted to the issues of determining the degree of impact of negative external economic factors on the main activities of enterprises and assessing the magnitude of their long-term financial losses as the result of this process. The study tests the hypothesis about the possibility of pre-dicting the dynamics of changes in the target indicator of an enterprise's activity during the reporting period as a result of the increase in the cost of imports of necessary production components, provided that financial reporting data and in-depth modification of financial management techniques are used. The author of the article uses financial forecasting methods in the process of determining long-term losses in the net profit of representatives of industrial sectors under the regular influence of negative external economic factors. In the future, the proposed methodology will be applied to four representatives of the truck manufacturing indus-try based on open financial reporting data on the results of their core activities, as well as statistical data from analytical structures on the current situation regarding the dependence of this industry on imported supplies of production components, combined with data on the degree of increase in the cost of these sup-plies as a result of the past dynamics of the foreign currency exchange rate. The purpose of this work is to verify the applicability of the methodology proposed by the author, using the example of existing automo-bile manufacturers, as well as to determine, based on the results obtained, the allowable amount of capital investment in expanding the production capabilities of these enterprises, which will allow them to cover their need for previously imported components. As a result of the research conducted, it was found that the proposed methodology is applicable to most capital-intensive manufacturing enterprises with a wide range of purchases, whose dependence on imports is expressed in the form of their high share in the total costs.