Navigating turbulence: adaptive local governance responses to the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine in the Norwegian Arctic

Abstract Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine profoundly disrupted Arctic governance, challenging the long-standing notion of Arctic exceptionalism and creating enduring turbulence. While scholarly debate has largely focused on geopolitical and institutional consequences, the local-level impacts remain underexamined. This study investigates adaptive governance (AG) responses to the war’s effects in Norway’s northernmost counties, Troms and Finnmark, which share a direct border with Russia. The analysis draws on the concepts of crisis, turbulence, and AG, situating them within broader scholarship on how decision-making сenters respond to crises and turbulence and political adaptation. It examines stakeholder responses across four key domains: civilian preparedness, international cooperation, infrastructure development, and the economic repercussions of sanctions. Based on 19 semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and media analysis, the study reveals both adaptation and persistent challenges shaped by pre-existing governance structures, demographic and economic conditions, and past cooperation with Russia. The study contributes to AG literature by unpacking the interplay between strategies, highlighting structural constraints, and demonstrating how geopolitical disruptions shape local governance in strategically significant environments.