Confronting Intrinsic Yield Variability: How Coffee Farmers Understand, Manage, and Cope with Crop Alternate Bearing

Abstract Global efforts aim to support the socio-ecological resilience of farms and farmers against environmental disturbances. Farmers growing many perennial crops also face inherent yield fluctuations, or alternate bearing (AB), which can synchronize across regional and national levels. Synchronous AB on a farm affects livelihoods directly but is often overlooked in resilience discussions. We conducted a socio-ecological study on farm-level AB in Coffea arabica to examine (a) how farmers understand, manage, and cope with AB, and (b) opportunities and limitations regarding their ability to reduce it. We combined semi-structured interviews ( n = 29) with quantitative analysis of AB across participating farms. Farmers see AB as a natural challenge. Management strategies vary depending on whether farmers view AB as driven by external factors or inherent to the plant. Those who see it as extrinsic use methods to mitigate weather and pest impacts, while those who see it as intrinsic focus on managing plant resource tradeoffs. Quantitative results show that pruning and fertilizer management are not linked to AB signals, but AB decreases significantly with higher farm elevation. Synchrony within and between farms increased after a regional pest outbreak, supporting the idea that environmental disturbances can synchronize crop yields. The findings suggest that AB continues despite management efforts, raising questions about the effectiveness of current coping strategies. Farmers reported using loans, external income, and limiting household spending during low-yield years to maintain consistent farm management, which affects overall resilience. The importance of intrinsic AB for the resilience of perennial crop systems deserves more attention.