The Directions and Scale of Structural Shifts in the Foreign Trade of the Baltic Countries within the EU

The aim of the article is to conduct a comparative analysis of export-import flows among the Baltic countries and with other countries, based on the latest official statistical data from international organizations, and to assess the directions and scales of long- and short-term structural shifts in their foreign trade. The research methods include the use of statistical processing of data over an extended period, identification and construction of trends, conducting inter-country comparative analysis, structural analysis methods, and trade intensity index evaluation methods. It is argued that the export growth rates during economic upturns in all three countries exceeded the average EU figures not only at the initial stage after their accession to the European Union (2004–2007) but also thereafter, up to 2022, due to not only the relatively low starting levels of production but also the high competitiveness of products manufactured in the Baltic countries, which is determined by two factors: a) comparable in quality to other leading industrial countries of the EU (for example, Germany, France) productive forces (means of production, equipment, technologies, etc.); b) relatively low wages. It has been determined that the main foreign trade partners of the Baltic countries are the neighboring and adjacent EU countries. It is substantiated that geopolitical problems, European trends in economic development on declining trajectories, and Western sanctions against Russia have defined the directions, scales, and depth of structural shifts in the foreign trade of the Baltic countries. Therefore, the sharp decline in the export and import indicators of the Baltic countries in 2023 is associated with the unfavorable overall economic conditions in their economies and in their current foreign trade partners, as well as with long-standing difficulties and actual stagnation of the EU economy. The Baltic countries are characterized by a high level of interdependence and regional trade integration. The only exception to the overall trend of increasing trade intensity index is Lithuania’s exports, which is explained by its increased orientation in foreign trade towards Poland and Germany.