Projections of Urban Land Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Region

Rapid socioeconomic development has continuously driven urban land expansion at the expense of other land types, leading to significant changes in land use and environment. However, existing studies still lack fine-resolution, long-term projections of urban land. Using seven periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020, this study projects urban land in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region under the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). A multiple linear regression model and the land use change scenario simulation model (GeoSOS-FLUS) were employed to make projection at a high spatial resolution of 1 km. The findings are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the rate of urban land expansion in the study area showed a pattern of initial acceleration followed by deceleration, with the average annual expansion rate decreasing from 1.36 × 103 km2 to 0.24 × 103 km2. The center of gravity shifted toward the southeast. (2) Future urban land expansion is projected to increase by 14 × 103 km2 (SSP3) to 48 × 103 km2 (SSP5). The northern and central parts of the region will experience more significant growth, and the center of gravity is projected to shifting northwest. (3) Under SSP2 and SSP5, the urban land will increase continuously. The findings can offer a valuable insight for regional planning and sustainable development.