Adaptive Strategies for Reducing Yield‐Scaled Nitrate Leaching in the US Midwest

Abstract Fertilizer use enhances crop yields but exacerbates nitrate leaching, threatening water quality in farming systems. This study optimizes nitrogen fertilization strategies by integrating numerical modeling and machine learning to balance corn yield and nitrate leaching in the US Midwest, 1979–2100. We evaluate the economic optimum nitrogen rate under climate‐smart agricultural practices like no‐tillage and cover crops. Findings show that the economic optimum nitrogen rate sustains yields but increases nitrate leaching, especially under future scenarios. In contrast, optimized strategies—such as a lower rate (−30%) than the economic optimum nitrogen rate combined with cover crops and no‐tillage—could reduce yield‐scaled nitrate leaching by over 60% from 2020 to 2100. The study underscores the synergistic benefits of integrated management in mitigating trade‐offs between productivity and environmental impacts. Further predictions offer adaptive strategies for achieving sustainable, high yields while minimizing nitrate leaching under various climate scenarios.