Assessment impact of Russia-Ukraine War on disruptions of global good supply chains for food trade in Africa

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked global good supply and food trade markets. While there is uncertainty over how the war will develop, it is certain that its ramifications will be both long-lasting and far-reaching for societies around the world. Both Russia and Ukraine are important to global good supply and food trade markets, particularly for energy, food and fertilizers. Economic sanctions, trade restrictions and policy interventions introduced by national and regional governments, in response to the invasion, have led to a rapid ‘spike’ in prices for these commodities. This trend has been further exacerbated by disruption to food supply chains and fears of potential supply. Before the war, they are been excessive demand in energy, food and fertilizer markets was already running ahead of supplies and driving up prices. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a global cost-of-living crisis had ensued, characterized by rising levels of energy and food poverty. These conditions worsened Russia-Ukraine war. High prices for energy and food pose immediate threats to human security, particularly among low-income and vulnerable populations in all economies and against a backdrop of post-pandemic inflation and limited fiscal capacity. These threats may also trigger cascading risks, which may combine with existing socio‑economic and political stresses to spark unrest and even further conflict in other parts of the world. The potential for coincident price or supply shocks including as a consequence of climate change further amplifies the risk. African countries must invest now to build the long-term resilience of societies and economies against global shocks of the scale that has been witnessed over the past two years, firstly the COVID-19 pandemic and now Russia’s war in Ukraine. They should take measures that mitigate both the ongoing impacts of the situation in Ukraine and the longer-term risks of market disruption.