Is electric mobility effective in smoothing the electricity load diagram? Evidence from Europe

This paper focuses on the impact of electric mobility, namely battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), on peak, intermediate, and valley levels of electricity demand. Monthly data from January 2018 to August 2023, for 26 European countries was used. A threshold model was applied because the impact on electricity demand of BEV and PHEV adoption (sales of new EVs) depends on their penetration level (the number of EVs already in circulation). The results of these models showed that BEV adoption initially decreases electricity demand in peak periods, but that this effect diminishes as the number of BEVs in circulation increases. BEV adoption was also found to increase valley and intermediate electricity demand levels up to the first threshold of BEV penetration, but above this, sales of BEVs reduced demand in these periods. Regarding PHEVs, when their level of penetration is low, new sales actually increase peak, intermediate, and valley electricity consumption. Overall, this paper found evidence that, with the right policies, BEVs and PHEVs can smooth the electricity load diagram and, in so doing, increase the economic efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems. • The electricity demand was divided into peak, intermediate and valley consumption. • The role of BEV and PHEV on the electricity demand levels were analysed. • Monthly data for 26 EU countries were used in a panel threshold estimator. • The BEV deployment has potential to decrease the electricity demand at peak. • The effects of new BEV and PHEV change as long as their penetration increases.