Integrating hunter dynamics and waterfowl dynamics to inform harvest management

Abstract The successful conservation and management of North American waterfowl relies upon an adaptive harvest management framework that accounts for changes in the system state and critical uncertainties related to the dynamics of waterfowl populations and habitats. Increasing recognition of the importance of the human dimensions of the harvest process, particularly those related to hunters, has motivated calls for the integration of social objectives into waterfowl conservation programs and decision making. We introduce a framework for modeling the dynamics of hunter populations and behavior alongside those of waterfowl populations. Using Bayesian estimation, we fit a dynamic state space model to observational data from the Mid‐Continent mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) system over a 20‐year period and estimated parameter values for the relative effects of a set of hypothesized drivers of hunter recruitment, retention, reactivation, participation, and success rates. We then made projections across 3 future scenarios to examine the continuation of current trends, the potential effects of a shift to a moderate regulatory framework as informed by expert elicitation, and increased hunter recruitment to maintain a stable hunter population. We found that a theoretical stable state exists for Mid‐Continent mallard and hunter populations but that the influence of broader sociocultural shifts and increasing hunter mortality from an aging base pose significant challenges for efforts to stabilize the ongoing decline of active hunter numbers, even under favorable regulatory conditions. This modeling framework and results from it can be used to inform decision processes in the management of game populations that seek to include social objectives and assess the potential trade‐offs of prioritizing across social and ecological objectives. We emphasize the need for focused human dimensions expertise throughout the process of fully integrating goals for waterfowl populations, habitats, and people in waterfowl conservation.