Impact of conflicts on agricultural crop investment in rural areas: Policy insight from a nationally representative survey dataset

Conflicts have emerged as a major constraint to agricultural development in Nigeria, undermining investment, productivity, and rural livelihoods. This study investigates the impact of conflict on agricultural investment decisions among rural households in Nigeria, using nationally representative panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) merged with conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Agricultural crop investment is proxied by three dimensions: crop choice, land area allocated for cultivation, and cost of production. We apply fixed-effects regression and a modified Difference-in-Differences (αDiD) approach to estimate the causal effects of conflict exposure within a 10-kilometer radius of households’ residences. The results reveal that conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of cultivating key staple crops including yam, sweet potato, maize, and cassava and contracts land area allocated to these crops. Total agricultural crop investment, as measured by production costs, declines in conflict-affected areas, particularly on female-managed plots, while mixed-managed plots experience cost increases, reflecting differentiated coping strategies. These effects highlight the distortionary impact of conflict on household investment behaviour, with implications for food security, rural poverty, and economic stability. The findings underscore the need for conflict-sensitive agricultural policies that promote resilience through targeted support for affected farmers, land tenure security, and inclusive financing mechanisms. By providing robust empirical evidence on the intersection of conflict and agricultural investment, this study offers critical policy insights for rebuilding rural economies and safeguarding Nigeria’s agri-food system in conflict-prone regions. • Conflicts reduce farm investment, land use, and crop output, particularly in vulnerable regions. • Staple crops like yam, maize, cassava, sweet potato, and cowpea are hardest hit. • Women farmers face sharper declines in investment, while mixed plots experience higher costs. • Conflict-sensitive policies, secure land rights, and inclusive finance are needed to protect rural livelihoods and food security.