Robust capacity expansion modeling for renewable energy systems

Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We evaluate solutions optimized on a single years' data under different input weather years, and iteratively modify solutions whenever supply gaps are detected. These modifications lead to solutions with sufficient capacities to overcome periods of cold dark lulls and seasonal demand/supply fluctuations. A computational study on a German energy system model for 40 operating years shows that preventing supply gaps, i.e., finding a robust system, increases the total annual cost by <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mn>1.6</mml:mn> <mml:mtext>-</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> <mml:mo>.</mml:mo> <mml:mn>9</mml:mn> <mml:mi>%</mml:mi></mml:math> . In comparison, non-robust systems display loss of load close to <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mn>50</mml:mn> <mml:mi>%</mml:mi></mml:math> of total demand during some periods. Results underline the importance of assessing the feasibility of energy system models using atypical time-series, combining dark lull and cold period effects.