Climate Projections and Temperature Evolution in the Canary Islands: High Resolution Analysis at Island Scale

ABSTRACT The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report highlights a significant rise in global surface temperatures and stresses the urgent need for localised climate research, especially in vulnerable regions like the Canary Islands (Spain). This study presents high‐resolution climate projections for temperature evolution during this century in the Canary Islands, with a spatial detail of 100 × 100 m. The climate scenarios were generated using a statistical downscaling methodology called FICLIMA, which consists of a two‐step analog/regressive statistical method. This unprecedented level of precision allows for a more accurate understanding of local climate conditions. The findings reveal consistent temperature increases across all seven islands. La Gomera shows the most pronounced warming, where the SSP5‐8.5 scenario predicts increases of up to 4.4°C, while Lanzarote and Fuerteventura exhibit smaller variations, likely due to their geographic characteristics. These results are of enormous value in addressing the specific challenges facing the archipelago, particularly the pressure on limited water resources caused by tourism and agriculture.