Presidential perspectives: COVID-19 and vaccination willingness in Tanzania under Magufuli and Hassan

This study examines the evolution of socio-political narratives regarding COVID-19 in the media and looks at their potential influence on COVID-19 vaccination willingness in Tanzania during the regimes of Presidents John Magufuli and Samia Suluhu Hassan. Through a longitudinal media analysis from March 2020 to September 2021, this paper explores how differing political approaches in immunisation governance, or lack thereof, influenced public perception and behaviour towards the pandemic and vaccination. Magufuli's response downplayed the severity of COVID-19, halting the release of infection data and promoting traditional remedies, which contributed to widespread scepticism, conspiracy thinking, and vaccine hesitancy. Following his unexpected death, President Hassan adopted a science-based approach, aligning with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and promoting vaccination. To frame the contrast between the content of the messages, we draw on Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) and show that Magufuli’s response corresponded to a “deny” strategy, while Hassan pursued a “rebuild” approach. Yet despite these substantive differences, our longitudinal media analysis shows that both presidents relied on comparable rhetorical techniques — namely instrumentalisation, personalisation and identity affirmation — to legitimise their respective strategies and maintain their authority. These common rhetorical mechanisms emphasise the importance of how - and not just what - political leaders communicate in times of crisis. Our findings suggest that leadership discourse, as mediated through the press, has significantly influenced public trust and contributed to vaccine hesitancy. In politically unstable contexts, abrupt changes in messaging can fuel uncertainty and hesitation, even when policymakers adhere more closely to the scientific consensus. • The abrupt leadership switch in Tanzania during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant shift in policy and narrative. • Our media analysis revealed a trade-off between narratives emphasizing science and those advocating for alternative approaches to managing the pandemic. • The discourse around COVID-19 vaccination was highly politicized. • Political leaders relied on the support of religious and community leaders to unify the public behind their strategies. • The intersection of politics and health policy had a profound impact on public perceptions and behaviors.