Assessment of potential proliferation risk of small modular reactors: Case study of Ghana and Nigeria

The growing energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for essential services like hospitals and schools has renewed interest in clean and reliable sources such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). This study assesses the proliferation risks associated with SMR deployment in Ghana and Nigeria. An analytical model was used to estimate the number of NuScale SMRs needed to meet projected energy demands of 18 for Ghana and 43 for Nigeria. MCNP simulations were conducted to quantify the Pu and U-235 in spent fuel of NuScale and AP-1000 reactors. Results show that the operation of SMRs in Ghana would accumulate 6.6 SQ of U-235 and 51.5 SQ of Pu per year, while 15.7 SQ of U-235 and 123.1 SQ of Pu per year would be accumulated in Nigeria. Political factors were analyzed for each country based on variables that can influence nuclear proliferation. Overall, the technical and political assessments indicate a minimal risk for Ghana and a moderate for Nigeria. These findings highlight the necessity of aligning technical deployment with strong political and regulatory safeguards to ensure secure and responsible nuclear energy adoption.