Long-term spatially explicit electricity demand scenarios for rural electrification: The case of Ethiopia

Access to electricity remains a significant developmental challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa. To address this, national electrification planning must account for both the temporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity of electricity demand, reflecting local socioeconomic realities and climatic conditions. This study aims to project long-term, spatially explicit electricity demand for households, productive users, and community institutions in Ethiopia. It also assesses the potential impact of rising temperatures on future electricity demand. Regression models are used to predict temporal changes in electricity demand, while the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) is used to examine the spatial demand dynamics across population settlements. Three scenarios—Business-as-Usual (BAU), High Economic Growth (HEG), and Rapid Urbanization (RU)—are developed to explore different development pathways from 2021 to 2050. The results show that, compared to the base year (2021), national electricity demand could increase by 176 % under the BAU, 219 % under the HEG, and 285 % under the RU by 2050. The most substantial increase in electricity demand is projected to come from households, followed by productive users. Significant spatial variations are evident, with household demand ranging from Tier 1 to Tier 4. Moreover, while projected temperature increases total national demand by only 0.53 % at national level, it can increase local demand by up to 22.6 %. These findings highlight that national averages or household-only models fail to capture the significant spatial and sector-specific variations in electricity demand. Therefore, high-resolution, multi-sector demand projections are essential for designing cost-effective and equitable electrification pathways. • Household, productive use and community institution spatial demand presented. • Electricity demand is highest for rapid urbanization scenario. • Community institutions contribute up to 46 % of local demand where present by 2050. • Household demand varies from Tier 1to Tier 4 due to local GDP and poverty levels. • Temperature rise increases demand by up to 23 % in Ethiopia's hottest lowland regions.