Construction and evaluation model of ecological environment carrying capacity indicators of Xiong’an new area from the perspective of development planning

• A more applicable EECC indicator system for rapidly developing cities is proposed. • An adjustable hybrid VIKOR-TOPSIS model is proposed for the evaluation of ecological environmental carrying capacity. • The proposed policy implications correspond to the management criteria in the indicator framework. The evaluation of Ecological Environment Carrying Capacity (EECC) is essential for balancing urban development and ecological protection, particularly in rapidly developing strategic regions such as Xiong’an New Area. To address limitations of traditional models that overlook management interventions and spatiotemporal variability, this study adopts a development planning perspective and establishes a DPSIRM (DrivingForces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response–Management) based EECC evaluation system. A hybrid VIKOR-TOPSIS model with dynamic adjustment is applied to quantify EECC from 2017 to 2023 using multi-source statistical and remote sensing data. The results show that: (1) The EECC of Xiong’an New Area increased from 0.416 in 2017 to 0.721 in 2023. Due to the temporary interruption of large-scale development and construction and epidemic related ecological restoration measures, it slightly decreased in 2020 and then steadily increased. (2) The main influencing factors include the green coverage rate of built-up areas, population density, and natural population growth rate. (3) The research findings emphasize that achieving sustainable development requires a dynamic balance between ecological pressure, socio-economic benefits, and management strategies, providing a scientific basis for planning and policy-making in rapidly urbanizing areas. This study contributes to balancing development and ecological protection, ultimately promoting a modern urbanization model characterized by “harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.”