Simulation-based policy analysis to mitigate Colombia's coal dependency for electricity generation

Colombia's Just Energy Transition faces significant hurdles, including renewable energy deployment delays, social conflicts, economic constraints, and escalating electricity demand. During periods of low hydropower availability, coal remains a critical energy source, complicating efforts to phase it out. This study employs a system dynamics model to evaluate three distinct policies—phased coal reduction, complete phase-out, and a higher emissions tax—and their effectiveness under various future scenarios. Our results reveal that external factors such as fuel prices, demand shifts, and hydrological conditions significantly influence the feasibility of these policies. While a gradual transition may not drastically alter the long-term trajectory, it can effectively curb future coal dependence. The findings underscore that effective planning is crucial for mitigating potential price spikes and adverse social impacts. This research offers policymakers actionable strategies to navigate Colombia's complex energy transition towards a secure, sustainable, and affordable electricity generation mix. • Simulations analyze Colombia's policies for a Just Energy Transition. • Coal phase-out is possible but poses cost and risk challenges. • Renewables could achieve 100 % generation by 2050, but hydropower reliance adds uncertainty. • Carbon tax effectiveness depends on high rates; lower rates incentivize gas use. • Further research on policy cost, social impacts, and energy system reliability is needed.